In an email released this morning, AppraiserNews.com reported that there is mounting evidence that there will not be a housing recovery until 2014. They cite several recent articles and surveys that have been released by noted market analysts and research companies that follow the real estate markets.
Below is the article. When reading it and the cited studies, keep in mind that the analysis is from a national perspective. Remember, real estate is a local topic. What is happening nationally may not be reflective of what is happening in the local Philadelphia region.
TUESDAY, MAY 24TH, 2011
While recent reports highlight the severity of the situation, those in a position to take actions to support the residential and commercial real estate markets are doing nothing positive to address the many problems. In no particular order, here are some of the recent studies and reports that we have viewed.
On May 18th, Prashant Gopal writing for Bloomberg cited a Trulia/RealtyTrac study which showed that more than of their survey respondents (homeowners and renters) now felt that they did not expect a recovery in the housing market for at least three years. The article quotes Pete Flint, Trulias CEO, as saying that We have another 18 months until we start to see signs of price stability in the housing market. The negative impact of the shadow inventory is prominently cited in the report by Mr. Gopal who refers to both CoreLogic and RealtyTrac findings. Forecasts by Moodys Analytics and S&P/Case-Shiller findings are also discussed in this report, a link to which is found here: US Housing Market May Not Recover Until 2014: Survey
In a report by CNBCs Diana Olick on May 16th, the lack of confidence of homebuilders as reflected in the National Association of Home Builders monthly report was discussed. Writing for Bloomberg the following day, Bob Willis discussed the unexpected decline in housing starts in the new Commerce Department report. Two days later, Mr. Willis along with Shobhana Chandra discussed the unexpected decline in existing home sales reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) that day along with the report that the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index also declined. Links to these three reports are found here:
Home Builder Sentiment Stagnates in May: NAHB